Westminster politics is split into two groups: The Conservative Party and the Not-Conservative Parties. The latter traditionally fish in the same pool of votes. The Conservatives themselves are split into two: The Business-Friendly – a practical centre-right bloc, and The Little Englanders – a blend of nationalists, tub-thumpers and fantasists.
On policy
The Liberal Democrats have been unsure where to stand relative to Labour; meandering left and right as the main NCP does the opposite. Flexibility has its benefits of course, you’re free to express your dynamism in the changing world. But having to be always in reaction to the big guy doesn’t look free. And voters like relative positions on firm foundations, not shifting sands.
On vote base
Fishing with a smaller net in the same pool as Labour will never be a big-catch tactic. So where’s there a bigger pool to fish in?
Forget fishing, just take a pool.
Now the Conservatives’ two groups aren’t a natural mix, nor an easy one. The stolid bunch who want a stable economy and free trade to keep making money from considered themselves the Tory base. They’d be happy to drop the other lot overboard. The other lot, flag-waving and living in a dream world of returning empire, also consider themselves the Tory base. Could you split them? Could you have ‘New Conservative’ and ‘Conservative and Bigots’ parties? No, the oldest party in the world won’t be officially dividing soon. Could you peel away one half? Maybe, but which and how? Let’s face it, peeling the Little Englanders rightward would be hard. Nigel Farage, with his pin-stripe suit and brown shirt, used his charm. He succeeded in breaking the country, but there’s limits. Most old conservatives consider themselves well above him and his sort of thing.
How about the Business-Friendly half? Well they’re the pragmatic bloc. Pragmatism was the Tories’ defining characteristic since Robert Peel, so arguably they have the claim as inheritors, but what’s in a name when there’s more important things to be done. Honest Boris and the Tub-Thumpers haven’t exactly made them welcome (have they Ken, Phil, Michael…?). And they crossed the aisle in reasonable numbers when Blair rebranded Labour as pro-business.
So the first question is what would happen if there was a centrist party: socially liberal, economically sensible (if not a little conservative), appreciating social services (the NHS was built – whatever they tell you – to keep workers working), conscious of the environmental work to be done (we can’t leave a wasteland to our children… and there’s business in it), and with some credentials – not a flash in the pan? I’d say if it could advertise a competent front bench the business-friendly Tories would cross aisle again, maybe for good.
And the second question: what would it take to turn the Lib-Dems into such a party? Not much. Elect Rory Stewart as leader, stir the mix and leave to rise for 12 months.
The result of such a migration might be a large sensible socially progressive centre-right party, a large centre-left party – currently sensible but has had its accidents, and a bunch of xenophobes fading into irrelevance. And in 350 years it’s not the first time Whigs and Tories have made up.