Countries, like people, often disagree. Grown-ups deal with that through negotiation and compromise. Sometimes a bit of petulant shouting is part of the negotiation.
Lookatme Truss, UK Foreign Secretary and Self-Publicist has made clear the UK intends to throw its toys out of the pram over the Northern Ireland Protocol, the UK-EU deal her boss made and signed 17 months ago. This is not part of a negotiation with the EU.
The Northern Ireland Protocol is explained here. Brexit was always going to make hassle necessary; Honest Boris’ choice of Brexit made it particularly difficult; what they got is a hassle, but equitable compromise can smooth it; equitable compromise requires trust; the current Clown Government has worked hard to make the UK among the most untrustworthy in the democratic world.
Truss is now proposing to walk away from the NI Protocol, an international treaty. We’ve been here before. These are the same toys Johnson threatened to throw out of his pram last year. What’s the game?
The recent elections in NI have elected a majority of uncompromising idiots who’ll fail to form a government. But what’s new there? In one corner is a tribe who blame the problems of the world on the NI Protocol (it probably caused Covid, and Russia to invade Ukraine you know). Teresa May had the misfortune to depend on these nuts, but times have changed, The Johnson Party have an eighty seat majority now. They don’t need to pander to any NI basket-cases these days. So what’s up?
The success or failure of Northern Ireland won’t be keeping Honest Boris up at night. Standing by some ex-allies while the doctors ponder their sectioning won’t be on his list. Maybe Truss wants to make some noise (for a change)? But Ukraine’s a big platform for her, this would only be a risky distraction.
The only explanation I can see is to rally the Conservative backbenchers. Local Tory associations have been trained to hate the EU, with its cloven hooves and tail. Blowing raspberries at it will always get cheers. When you’ve been convicted in office, are lambasted in the media, lost a bucketful of local council seats, and are being polled to be the biggest drain on votes you probably want some cheers. Understandable, that’s politics.
Walking away from the NI Protocol will cause a trade war with our biggest partners. Even threatening to diminishes trust. This isn’t the road to peace and harmony. Even without actual negative consequences the rest of the world sees The West behaving incoherently; the rest of the world like Putin, Xi, Orban and others that need to see us acting together. Why would Putin believe any threats we make if we can’t even trade on the terms we just signed a treaty on?
Internal Conservative Party politics caused Brexit, something that will lead to the atrophy and possibly dismembering of the country. Internal Tory politics would be an unfortunate reason for the weakness of the West in front of autocracy.
There are necessary times to negotiate and there are good times to shout. On this topic now isn’t either.